Check out our traders’ thoughts on both mouth-watering AFL Preliminary Finals set to take place this Friday and Saturday.
You can get set on both games with a full range of markets available at TopBetta.
Adelaide $1.41 v Geelong $3.02
They were separated only by percentages on top of this year’s AFL ladder, but only one of Adelaide and Geelong will progress to this year’s Grand Final.
The Crows looked at one stage like being runaway minor premiers but in the end barely clung on to top spot and will have enjoyed the week off. By contrast, Geelong were made to work for their place via the Semis following a week one thumping by Richmond. They accounted for the Swans in style last week and will look to harness that momentum here.
Adelaide gets their best player in Rory Sloane back for Friday’s clash, while former Crow Patrick Dangerfield has been named at full forward once again for Geelong. Don’t be surprised to see him drop into the midfield though to combine with captain Joel Selwood and exploit the Crows’ biggest weakness. We expect Scott Selwood to be tasked with shutting down one of the Crouch brothers, leaving Dangerfield and Sloane to go head to head in the middle.
We’re anticipating a much tighter clash than the market suggests and Geelong look over the odds at $3.02. Adelaide’s home ground advantage isn’t perhaps what it seems on the surface and the cats with the start may be the smartest way home
Betting tip: Geelong +17.5 @ $1.92
Richmond $1.60 v Greater Western Sydney $2.53
The Tigers stamped their Premiership credentials with a resounding victory over Geelong in week one of the finals, but do they deserve to be so short in the second Prelim against GWS?
The Giants’ hand was forced recently with the loss of Jeremy Cameron and Shane Mumford leading them to change their playing style. They’ve had to play smaller and as a result are applying far more pressure on the opposition and moving it with more zip. This should make them ultra competitive against the Tigers, who simply ran Geelong off the ground in the first week of the finals. No doubt this game will be won in the midfield and if the Giants can stop runaway Brownlow Medal favourite Dustin Martin, they can win.
An interesting side note is that Brett Deledio is facing his former club Richmond in his 250th AFL game, incidentally his first Prelim final. He’s not played many games for the Giants but will be sure to lift for the occasion.
While we’ve made a case for the Giants, the fact is Richmond do deserve to start favourites, just perhaps not as short. They’ll have a huge home crowd/supporters advantage, but we’ll go with the Giants with the start to take them all away.
Betting tip: GWS +8.5 @ $1.92