ALOISIA is the dominant market elect in the 2017 VRC Oaks, heading a field of twelve staying fillies over Flemington’s testing 2500m circuit.
Twleve months ago, a daring ride from Brenton Avdulla stole the show on 150-1 shot Lasqueti Spirit in the Oaks, upsetting short priced favourite Yankee Rose.
This year, it is Aloisia’s turn to fly the favourites flag and on form, she looks awfully hard to beat in a weak edition of the fillies classic.
Here is how our analyst sees all twelve runners – you can back your chosen horse at TopBetta on fixed odds or GOAT Top +5% here.
GROUP 1 VRC OAKS (2500M)
1 ALOISIA ($1.60): Richly deserved odds on favourite for the Oaks after blitzing the boys in the Vase at Moonee Valley. She relished the step to 2040m there and provided she handles the rise again to 2500m on Thursday, looks the winner.
2 LUVALUVA ($7.00): Strong winner of the Wakeful on Derby Day, weaving through the field off a slow tempo under Blake Shinn. This race has been her target for some time and looks a key place chance.
3 BRING ME ROSES ($21.00): Was wide and weakened in the Wakeful. With a kinder run in transit she can challenge for minor honours.
4 PINOT ($6.00): A tough winner of the Ethereal and will race on pace here once again. Not sure she has the quality of the favourite but will be thereabouts.
5 RIMRAAM ($15.00): Has finished behind Luvaluva and Pinot at her last two. She’ll likely be in the death seat which won’t be ideal and happy to leave her out of the numbers.
6 HIYAAM ($21.00): Has finished a length behind Rimraam at each of her last two. Has received kind runs in both so hard to see her turning the tables.
7 LUCKY LOUIE ($101.00): Finished well back in both the Wakeful and Ethereal. Not sure where the turnaround comes from.
8 RELIABLE DAME ($17.00): Brings different form via Geelong where she finished a length behind Astoria, who ran third in the Derby. Made up plenty of ground that day and is a good place chance here.
9 SWEET MISCHIEF ($61.00): Too far back in an on-pace dominated affair at Caulfield. Tony McEvoy is a trainer in form but she appears tested nonetheless.
10 FOUR KOALAS ($91.00): Finished 14 lengths from Aloisia last start.
11 CIRCULEIGHT ($151.00): Form doesn’t look good enough.
12 MISS ADMIRATION ($201.00): Will finish closer to last than first.
It is impossible to go past ALOISIA in this one. Her form is superior to these and it looks a matter of how far if she turns up on her A game. Any price above $1.50 looks enough to consider backing her.
For the minors, LUVALUVA’S Derby Day win was impressive and puts her just ahead of PINOT in the pecking order. BRING ME ROSES and RELIABLE DAME are the other place chances.