THE best team in the home and away competition faces the sentimental favourites this Saturday in a mouth-watering 2017 AFL Grand Final.
The Adelaide Crows go into the match as $1.71 favourites with TopBetta, but will need to defy a strong home ground and likely ‘home crowd’ bias in favour of Richmond ($2.20) at the MCG.
If this match was to be played in Adelaide then in all likelihood the Crows would be closer to $1.50 but it is the Tigers who have played the MCG arguably better than anyone else this year.
Richmond’s biggest challenge looks to be their run to the Grand Final – they’ve played two teams with highly dysfunctional forward lines thus far in the finals series. Geelong were a mess, as were GWS with Jeremy Cameron out. In contrast, the Crows are the highest scoring side in the league and possess one of the best forward lines the AFL has seen in 20 years.
The Tigers’ defence has been elite all season but to stop the Crows they will have to be just as ruthless in midfield and across half back. Shutting down Rory Laird, Rory Atkins and the Crouch brothers is crucial.
But Adelaide’s biggest advantage comes in the ruck. The last time Sam Jacobs played against Toby Nankervis he had 50 hit outs and 26 disposals in what was his most dominant display for the season. The Crows will back themselves to exploit this match up and dominate the centre clearances.
While it is difficult to predict a lop-sided Grand Final, there does look to be enough of a gap between the two sides to bet. While Richmond possesses the best player in the competition, Adelaide has been the best team all year and is a more complete outfit. If they can play the MCG well, they will be a good bet to cover the -5.5 line.
Betting tip: Adelaide -5.5 @ $1.91